By Omar Silva

Editor: National Perspective Bz DIGITAL 2024

www.nationalperspectivebz.com

Belize City:  Thursday 24th October 2024

As the 2025 General Elections loom just months away, the United Democratic Party (UDP) finds itself at a pivotal crossroads, riddled with internal divisions, leadership challenges, and an uncertain future. The recently held "Unity Convention," led by the Alliance for Democracy (AFD), has deepened the fractures within the party, calling into question its ability to present a united front in time for the elections. With Tracy Panton declared the interim leader by her faction and Shyne Barrow, the constitutionally recognized Leader of the Opposition, refusing to step aside, the UDP now faces a political quagmire that threatens to undermine its credibility and electability.

The Unity Convention or Discord?

The so-called "Unity Convention," backed by Tracy Panton and the AFD, was a show of force aimed at ousting Shyne Barrow from his leadership role. Panton’s camp, claiming overwhelming support from 347 of the party's 530 delegates, sent a clear message: they no longer have faith in Barrow’s leadership. Yet, despite the visible presence of UDP supporters and key figures from past administrations, the convention’s legitimacy remains under scrutiny.

Shyne Barrow has outright rejected the convention’s results, questioning the legality of the delegate count and the involvement of the AFD. His argument is rooted in the party’s constitution, which requires that executive members and area representatives swear an oath of allegiance to the UDP, prohibiting affiliation with any other politically aligned organization. Barrow contends that by aligning themselves with the AFD, key figures such as Panton and her supporters have violated this oath, thus nullifying their claims to leadership within the UDP.

The public emergence of the AFD just weeks before the convention further complicates matters. What was initially presented as a faction within the UDP now stands accused of being a separate entity with its own political agenda, leaving the UDP’s constitutionality in question.

Tracy’s Mandate: A Glimmer of Hope?

For her part, Tracy Panton has called Shyne Barrow’s refusal to step down “delusional,” insisting that the mandate of the delegates is clear. Panton’s appointment as interim leader is historic, as she becomes the first female to lead a major political party in Belize. Her leadership, however, comes at a precarious time. The UDP’s internal struggles are public, and the party appears more fractured than ever.

Panton’s message to Shyne Barrow and other members of the UDP establishment was simple: join the movement or step aside. Yet, despite her appeal to unity, the fact remains that Panton's leadership is backed by a faction, not the whole party. The absence of formal recognition from the party secretariat leaves the UDP in a legal limbo, and this divide is likely to drag on in the weeks leading up to the election.

The Barrow Factor: Defiance in the Face of Defeat?

Shyne Barrow, however, is not going down without a fight. His confidence in his remaining support base is unshaken, and he has shown no sign of stepping aside to make way for Panton. In his interview following the convention, Barrow doubled down on his position, pointing to the absence of key UDP figures from the event as proof of his enduring leadership.

Barrow’s continued defiance—bolstered by his upcoming Disney documentary release, "The Honourable Shyne"—suggests that the battle for the soul of the UDP will persist. With factions entrenched and neither side showing signs of compromise, the UDP risks alienating voters who are looking for a united opposition capable of challenging the ruling People's United Party (PUP) in 2025.

A Party in Crisis: The Consequences of Disunity

As the UDP grapples with these internal divisions, the broader question is whether the party can recover in time for the 2025 General Elections. The convention highlighted deep-rooted dissatisfaction with Shyne Barrow’s leadership, yet the path to a smooth transition of power remains blocked by legal and constitutional challenges. With the UDP’s leadership now in a state of uncertainty, the party risks entering the election season in disarray.

The consequences of this disunity could be dire. The PUP, despite facing its own set of challenges, remains relatively united. If the UDP cannot resolve its internal struggles soon, it may well lose its ability to effectively campaign and mount a serious challenge to the PUP’s incumbency.

Recommendations for the UDP’s Path Forward

The UDP’s current trajectory is unsustainable. To avoid a catastrophic defeat in the 2025 elections, the party must urgently address its internal divisions and present a united front. Here are some key recommendations for how the UDP can move forward:

Immediate Mediation Between Factions: The UDP must engage in formal mediation between Shyne Barrow and Tracy Panton’s factions. This should involve neutral senior party members to facilitate dialogue and seek a resolution that respects the party’s constitution while acknowledging the growing support for Panton’s leadership. Both sides must be willing to compromise for the greater good of the party.

Constitutional Clarity: The UDP leadership should seek immediate clarification on the constitutional validity of the Alliance for Democracy’s involvement. If Panton’s faction is found to have violated party rules, steps must be taken to either formally integrate them into the party or ensure that their actions do not further destabilize the UDP.

Focus on Policy, Not Personalities: The UDP needs to shift the focus away from personality conflicts and onto policy issues that resonate with Belizeans. With a general election on the horizon, voters need to see a party capable of delivering solutions to the country’s pressing economic and social issues.

Public Reconciliation and Unity Campaign: Once internal matters are resolved, the UDP must launch a public reconciliation and unity campaign to restore voter confidence. This campaign should highlight the party’s collective vision for Belize’s future, while downplaying the personal rivalries that have dominated recent headlines.

Strengthening Grassroots Support: While high-profile figures within the party battle for control, the UDP must not lose sight of its grassroots base. Mobilizing supporters at the local level, addressing their concerns, and providing a clear vision for the future will be crucial for securing votes in the general election.

Conclusion

The United Democratic Party stands at a critical juncture. With internal divisions threatening to derail its chances in the 2025 General Elections, the party must act swiftly to resolve its leadership crisis. The path forward will not be easy, but if the UDP can reconcile its factions, refocus its message, and rebuild its image, it may yet have a fighting chance. Belize needs a strong opposition, and the UDP must rise to the occasion—or risk irrelevance on the national stage.