By: Omar Silva

Editor, National Perspective Bz DIGITAL 2024

www.nationalperspectivebz.com

Belize City, Thursday 24th October 2024

The idea of a UDP/Alliance for Democracy Coalition presents an intriguing possibility, especially given the urgency of the situation and the looming 2025 General Elections. Both factions—the traditional UDP and the Alliance for Democracy (AFD)—share a common interest in unseating the People's United Party (PUP). The UDP is indeed running out of time, a coalition might be the quickest and most pragmatic way to present a united front. However, while it offers a potential path to mitigate internal division, there are several critical factors to consider.

Potential Benefits of a Coalition

1. United Front Against the PUP: The most immediate benefit of a coalition would be presenting a single, united front against the PUP. Both factions are aware that their divided house could allow the PUP to exploit the situation, casting the UDP as incapable of governing itself, let alone the country. A coalition could dispel the perception of disarray and demonstrate that, despite their differences, the UDP and AFD are willing to come together for the greater good of the party—and Belize.
2. Leveraging Strongholds: Both factions have their areas of influence and key supporters. A strategic distribution of candidacies, where the UDP and AFD field candidates in constituencies they believe they hold a strong presence, could maximize their electoral chances. This would allow the coalition to focus resources more efficiently and strengthen their campaign in each of the 31 constituencies, targeting key swing areas where they can challenge the PUP.
3. Broader Appeal: The AFD's emergence, while divisive within the UDP, also represents a fresh face in the political landscape. By including this faction in a coalition, the UDP might broaden its appeal to disillusioned voters seeking new leadership. Tracy Panton’s leadership brings historical significance and could attract female voters, younger Belizeans, and those frustrated with the status quo, balancing out Shyne Barrow’s appeal to his base.
4. Short-Term Stability: Forming a coalition could provide a short-term solution to the internal leadership crisis. While long-term ideological differences may remain, the urgency of winning the 2025 elections might motivate both sides to temporarily set aside their differences and focus on the common goal of defeating the PUP.

Challenges and Risks

• Trust and Cohesion: Forming a coalition may sound straightforward, but trust between the two factions is tenuous. The UDP leadership and Shyne Barrow have accused the AFD of violating the party’s constitution, while the AFD has labeled Barrow’s leadership as delusional. If the coalition is merely a temporary marriage of convenience, it could fall apart during the election campaign or in the aftermath if the factions revert to internal fighting.
• Leadership Question: Who would lead the coalition? Would Shyne Barrow remain at the helm as the constitutional Leader of the Opposition, or would Tracy Panton take the lead? A power-sharing arrangement might help, but it could also create confusion and dilute the coalition’s messaging. Voters may be left wondering who is truly in charge, further undermining confidence in the UDP.
• Voter Perception: While a coalition could unify the factions internally, it may also confuse voters. The sudden shift from division to unity might be perceived as opportunistic, especially if voters sense that the coalition is based on political survival rather than a genuine vision for Belize’s future. The PUP could capitalize on this, framing the coalition as a desperate attempt by a fractured party to cling to relevance.
• Campaign Strategy: Dividing the constituencies between UDP and AFD candidates might backfire if voters feel disenfranchised by having to choose between candidates from different factions within the same coalition. Some traditional UDP supporters may be reluctant to vote for AFD candidates, and vice versa, creating internal friction even at the constituency level.

A Glimmer of Hope?

Despite these challenges, the coalition does offer a potential lifeline. If both factions are pragmatic and willing to compromise, they could avoid the slow collapse of the UDP and present a credible challenge to the PUP. A coalition could help the party refocus on key issues like transparency and accountability—areas where the PUP has faced criticism. The current government’s blurred decisions regarding these matters, coupled with widespread frustration over the handling of national resources and governance, create an opportunity for the opposition to regain ground. But this opportunity can only be seized by a unified opposition that voters believe is capable of governing.

My Recommendations for a Coalition Path Forward

1. Establish a Clear Leadership Framework: If a coalition is to succeed, it must have a clear and unified leadership structure. Shyne Barrow and Tracy Panton need to reach an agreement on who will lead the coalition into the 2025 elections. Whether it is Barrow, Panton, or a shared leadership model, clarity is essential to prevent voter confusion and infighting.
2. Develop a Joint Platform: Both factions must quickly agree on a joint political platform that emphasizes policy over personality. Voters need to see that the UDP/AFD coalition has a clear plan for Belize’s future—one that addresses the country's most pressing issues, such as economic recovery, corruption, and governance. The coalition must also highlight the shortcomings of the PUP, especially in areas where the government has lacked transparency and accountability.
3. Focus on Transparency and Accountability: Given the PUP’s vulnerability on issues of governance, the coalition should position itself as the party of transparency and accountability. Both Barrow and Panton have an opportunity to demonstrate that they can bring fresh, clean leadership to Belize. This message will resonate with voters who are frustrated with the current administration’s handling of key issues.
4. Mobilize Support Quickly: Time is running out, and the coalition must act swiftly to mobilize grassroots support. A unified campaign effort, with candidates from both factions working together, will be essential. The coalition must also focus on voter engagement, particularly in areas where disillusionment with the PUP is highest. A robust and united ground game will be crucial in the months leading up to the election.
5. Public Display of Unity: To gain voter trust, the UDP and AFD must publicly display their unity. Joint press conferences, rallies, and statements emphasizing their common goals and vision for Belize will help reassure voters that the coalition is more than just a short-term fix. The leadership of both factions needs to visibly demonstrate that they are working together for the good of the country.
6. Public Sentiment: Briefly touch on how the public perceives this division within the UDP. Is there polling data, or anecdotal evidence, suggesting how voters feel about this internal power struggle? Including a mention of public opinion could contextualize the urgency for unity.
7. Electoral History: Add a brief historical comparison of past UDP election campaigns. Have they faced internal divisions before, and if so, how did it affect their electoral performance? A short reflection on past instances of party fragmentation or coalitions could add depth to the narrative.
8. Potential Repercussions: Highlight more explicitly the dangers of what could happen if the coalition is not formed, particularly the likelihood of electoral defeat, voter apathy, or the PUP’s strengthened position due to a divided opposition.

Conclusion

While a UDP/Alliance for Democracy Coalition is not without its risks, it may offer the best hope for a fractured opposition facing the fast-approaching 2025 General Elections. If the two factions can unite under a shared leadership framework and present a clear, compelling vision for Belize’s future, they may yet have a chance to challenge the PUP. However, success will depend on their ability to put aside personal differences and present a credible, unified alternative to the Belizean people.

Time is running out, but with the right strategy, this coalition could reignite the UDP’s prospects and restore its place as a formidable force in Belizean politics.