Is Briceño and the PUP Ready for Belize’s Worst-Case Scenario?

By: Omar Silva I Editor/Publisher

National Perspective Belize I Digital 2025

www.nationalperspectivebz.com

Belize City: Thursday, 18th September 2025

When former Guatemalan Ambassador to the OAS and Deputy Foreign Minister Rodrigo Vielman openly speculates on Canal Antigua about Guatemala preparing to absorb Belize as a new “department” if the ICJ rules in its favour, it raises uncomfortable questions that Belizeans cannot afford to ignore.

Vielman’s remarks, while provocative, reveal a glaring contrast: in Guatemala, even opposition voices are already discussing strategic planning, security, and administrative integration in the event of an unexpected outcome. In Belize, by contrast, Prime Minister John Briceño calmly tells the media, “I am sure the verdict will be in Belize’s favour.”

Confidence is not a plan. Optimism is not preparation.

The Questions That Must Be Asked

If Belize were to face the unimaginable — an ICJ ruling against us — what is the Briceno administration’s strategic vision?

• Défense: Our Belize Defence Force (BDF), underfunded and ill-equipped, is no match for a sudden Guatemalan military intervention. What contingencies exist to protect Belizean civilians if foreign troops cross our borders?
• Allies: Guatemala counts the United States and Israel as close allies, both heavily invested in its security and military capacity. Where are Belize’s allies? Beyond diplomatic notes, what assurances of solidarity or intervention do we realistically have?
• Civil Protection: Vielman spoke of “public safety, health, and cadastral registration of persons and lands” under Guatemalan control. Has Belize’s government considered how to safeguard Belizeans’ rights, property, and national identity in the face of forced reclassification?
• Foreign Investment: What would happen to foreign investors in Belize if Guatemala attempted to revoke land titles, as Vielman brazenly suggested? Do we have a legal and diplomatic shield in place?
• Public Communication: Is the administration preparing Belizeans for the ICJ decision in an honest and transparent manner, or is it hiding behind blind faith in a favourable ruling?

A Test of Leadership

The Prime Minister’s assertion that “the verdict will be in Belize’s favour” may soothe nerves, but it is no substitute for hard contingency planning. Belizeans deserve to know:

• What is the step-by-step emergency plan if the ICJ delivers an adverse ruling?
• Which ministries are tasked with civil defence and evacuation strategies?
• Has there been any direct coordination with regional partners (CARICOM, CELAC, SICA) to prepare for such an eventuality?
• Will the government share a public white paper outlining possible scenarios and responses?

The Real Danger

The real danger is not just the ICJ verdict itself, but the vacuum of preparation and trust in our government’s ability to respond. Guatemala is already talking openly — even boastfully — about annexation and integration. Belize’s leaders remain reactive, offering no vision beyond their hope that the Court will smile upon us.

Belizeans must demand more than hope. We must demand preparation. Because if the ICJ surprises us, confusion and panic will be our greatest enemies — and Guatemala’s greatest allies.